A Supergirl flop could end James Gunn’s DC plans
Supergirl: Woman of Tomorrow is tracking for a $55 million opening on June 26, less than half of Superman’s $125 million debut last summer and below the threshold Warner Bros. needs to justify the DCU
The DCU’s second theatrical chapter is now three weeks out, and the tracking is not good.
Supergirl, the Milly Alcock Kryptonian feature directed by Craig Gillespie, is currently pacing for a $55 million domestic opening on June 26 per Deadline‘s tracking. That number is less than half of last summer’s $125 million debut for James Gunn‘s Superman, which went on to gross $618.7 million worldwide and gave the new DCU enough momentum to push forward with its slate.
Supergirl reportedly cost $170 to $175 million to produce. Pre-sale data has it pacing at 54 percent of Superman’s first-day numbers, 65 percent of Marvel’s Fantastic Four: First Steps which opened to $117.6 million, and 92 percent of Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania which opened to $106.1 million. The Flash opened to $55 million in 2023 and went on to make less than $300 million total. That is the comparison nobody at Warner Bros. wants to make.
If Supergirl lands closer to the worst-case $47 million tracking floor, the comparisons to The Marvels get loud fast.
The Peacemaker problem already happened
Before Supergirl even opens, the DCU has a separate flop on the books.
Peacemaker Season 2, which aired on HBO Max from August 21 to October 9, 2025, lost 39 percent of its premiere audience by the finale per Samba TV‘s four-day measurement window. The Season 2 finale pulled 435,000 households, which was 25.5 percent lower than the Season 1 finale’s 584,000 households three years earlier.
The season also failed to crack the Nielsen Top 10 streaming charts in any single week of its run.
Critics liked it well enough at 94 percent on Rotten Tomatoes. Audiences gave it a 79 percent popcornmeter score, a meaningful gap from the 93 percent fan rating Season 1 earned in 2022.
Gunn confirmed in October that Peacemaker is not returning for a third season.
The bigger issue: Gunn explicitly positioned Season 2 as a direct sequel to Superman. The viewership collapse suggests the Superman theatrical audience did not follow into the DCU’s first interconnected TV property. That is a structural problem for a shared universe strategy that depends on audience portability between film and television.
Then the Ellisons showed up
The DCU’s other problem is that James Gunn may not be running it for much longer.
Paramount Skydance signed a definitive merger agreement on February 27, 2026 to acquire Warner Bros. Discovery in a deal worth roughly $110 billion in enterprise value at $31 per share in cash. The deal is expected to close in Q3 2026 assuming European Commission antitrust approval clears the July 7 deadline. Larry Ellison personally guaranteed $43.3 billion of the financing.
Paramount Skydance CEO David Ellison has publicly said he plans to keep Gunn and Peter Safran in place at DC Studios. He has also been publicly enthusiastic about the DC brand and has said the merged company will release up to 30 films per year.
The actions tell a different story.
Paramount Pictures co-chair Josh Greenstein has reportedly already approached Weapons director Zach Cregger about producing a DCU film based on Cregger’s Henchman script, per Puck and Collider. Under the current Gunn-Safran model, projects do not enter the DCU without their approval. The Greenstein conversation went around them.
Gunn also did not attend the first internal Ellison meeting earlier this year, with the official excuse being he was filming Man of Tomorrow in Atlanta. He also missed the CinemaCon 2026 DC Studios panel, sending a video message instead. Bloomberg reported in October 2025 that the Ellison strategy is to “keep the creative teams of the two studios, while consolidating some of the marketing and distribution,” which sounds reassuring on paper but leaves significant interpretive room.
Cosmic Book News reported separately that the DCU is “on hold” until the merger closes, with only projects “already filmed, currently in production, or that already have release dates” moving forward. That covers everything through Man of Tomorrow and not much past it.
The Trump factor
There is also a political wrinkle. Larry Ellison and President Trump have a documented working relationship. Paramount Pictures announced Rush Hour 4 with director Brett Ratner returning after Ratner had not worked in nearly a decade following multiple sexual assault allegations. Per reporting, the announcement came at Trump’s request.
Gunn was a vocal critic of the first Trump administration. He was famously fired from Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 in 2018 over old tweets surfaced in what was widely characterized as a coordinated harassment campaign, before being rehired by Disney months later.
Whether the Ellison-Trump alignment factors into how the new Paramount-WBD leadership treats Gunn is unconfirmed. The optics raise the question regardless.
Man of Tomorrow is the floor
Man of Tomorrow, the Superman sequel that Gunn is currently directing in Atlanta, is scheduled for release on July 9, 2027. David Corenswet is back as Superman. Milly Alcock is set to appear, presumably bridging the Supergirl story into the main DCU spine. Nicholas Hoult returns as Lex Luthor. Brainiac is the new villain.
Gunn’s contract at DC Studios was extended through Spring 2027, putting him in roughly the same window as Man of Tomorrow’s theatrical release.
What happens after that is unclear.
In an October 2025 interview with BobaTalks, Gunn was asked about long-term DCU plans extending past Man of Tomorrow. His response, with a noticeable hesitation: “If I s-- Yes, they definitely go significantly further than ‘Man of Tomorrow.’ So, now, whether or not that’ll be me that’s able to fulfill that promise depends on a lot of things in life, but yeah.“
He laughed. The laugh did not sound confident.
If Supergirl underperforms on June 26, the bargaining position Gunn has with the incoming Paramount leadership weakens significantly. A $50-55 million opening sets a low ceiling for the Lanterns rollout and the Clayface release. It also gives Greenstein and Ellison cover to start making creative decisions over Gunn’s head. The Henchman conversation suggests they are already comfortable doing that.
The DCU may continue without James Gunn. Man of Tomorrow is the last guaranteed Gunn project on the calendar. Everything past it depends on a Supergirl opening that may not happen, an Ellison who may or may not honor his public commitment to current leadership, and a 30-films-a-year mandate that has nothing to do with the careful interconnected-universe vision Gunn pitched in 2023.
June 26 will tell us a lot.
The first signs are not encouraging.
Article compiled and edited by Derek Gibbs (entertainment editor) and the Clownfish TV newsroom.
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Hat Tips:
Deadline / FanBolt / Cosmic Book News (June 4-6, 2026), verified Supergirl: Woman of Tomorrow $55 million opening weekend tracking and presale comparison data including the 54% of Superman first-day pace, 65% of Fantastic Four: First Steps, and 92% of Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania
Express Tribune / The Washington Times (May 26 - June 7, 2026), verified Supergirl $170-175 million budget reporting and $47-65 million tracking range
Comic Basics (June 4, 2026), verified Supergirl 27 million YouTube trailer views and 24 million teaser views
Variety / Yahoo Entertainment, verified Superman opening weekend $125 million and $618.7 million worldwide gross
Samba TV (October 2025), verified Peacemaker Season 2 finale 435,000 households over four days and 39% drop from premiere to finale
Cosmic Book News / ThatParkPlace (October 2025), verified Peacemaker Season 2 ratings collapse and failure to chart on Nielsen Top 10
Rotten Tomatoes, verified Peacemaker Season 2 critics 94% / audience 79% scores
ScreenRant (October 2025), verified James Gunn confirmation that Peacemaker will not return for Season 3
SEC EDGAR / Paramount Skydance Corp Form 8-K (February 27, 2026), verified $110 billion enterprise value WBD merger, $31 per share cash, Q3 2026 expected close, Larry Ellison $43.3 billion personal guarantee
Collider / Puck (December 2025), verified Josh Greenstein discussion of Zach Cregger Henchman script bypassing the Gunn-Safran approval process
The Direct (April 22, 2026), verified Gunn absence from CinemaCon 2026 DC Studios panel and Ellison expressed support for current leadership
Bounding Into Comics / The Hollywood Reporter (March 2026), verified Gunn absence from initial Ellison meeting and contract extension to Spring 2027
Bleeding Cool / BobaTalks (October 2025), verified Gunn quote on DCU plans extending past Man of Tomorrow including the laugh and hesitation
Wikipedia, verified Man of Tomorrow July 9, 2027 release date, cast including David Corenswet, Nicholas Hoult, Milly Alcock, and the Atlanta production timeline
MovieWeb (December 2025), verified Trump-Ellison working relationship context and Rush Hour 4 Brett Ratner announcement