Supergirl came in even lower than expected: $37 million, and the projections kept falling all weekend
The final number is in, and it’s worse than the estimate. Supergirl closed its opening weekend at $37.1 million, below even the $38 million Sunday projection, capping a brutal slide that saw expectations fall from $55 million all the way down. Here’s the full math.
It somehow got worse. Supergirl‘s opening weekend, already a confirmed flop, came in below even its own disappointing estimate once the final numbers landed.
The film closed at $37.1 million domestically, under the $38 million that was projected on Sunday. And that capped a weekend where the expected number kept falling, and falling, and falling. Here’s the full picture, by the numbers.
The number that kept dropping
Let’s trace the slide, because it tells the whole story.
The expectations for Supergirl didn’t just miss, they eroded in real time over weeks and then days:
Early tracking pointed to a $55 million opening
That slipped to around $50 million
Then down toward $45 million
Sunday’s estimate landed at $38 million
The final Monday tally came in at $37.1 million
Every single checkpoint moved in the same direction: down. For a studio, that’s the worst kind of trend, the floor keeps dropping out, and the “actual” ends up beneath even the lowered guess.
The global picture
The worldwide number isn’t any kinder.
Supergirl pulled about $67 to $68 million globally in its opening weekend, against a reported $170 million production budget (before the massive marketing spend). For a tentpole superhero movie meant to anchor a cinematic universe, a sub-$70 million global start is a genuinely rough debut.
It opened in second place, behind Toy Story 5, which in its second weekend pulled around $70-73 million on its way past $300 million domestic. Supergirl lost its own opening weekend to a two-week-old cartoon.
The comparison that stings most
Here’s the benchmark that turns “soft” into “alarming.”
Supergirl‘s $37 million domestic opening landed below the $39 million debut of 2022’s Morbius — a film so poorly received its name became an internet punchline. Morbius went on to gross just $167 million worldwide.
And the contrast with its own predecessor is stark. Last year’s Superman opened to $125 million and finished with $618 million worldwide. Supergirl did less than a third of Superman’s opening. That’s the opposite of the momentum a shared universe is built to create.
Now there’s a loss estimate
Since the weekend, the financial damage has come into focus.
Industry trades now estimate Supergirl could lose around $85 million for Warner Bros. over its theatrical run. With a $170 million budget plus marketing, the film likely needs roughly $300 million worldwide to break even, and from a $68 million start, analysts say it’s “extremely unlikely” to even pass the $271 million global total of 2023’s The Flash, itself a notorious DC bust.
So this isn’t just a soft open anymore. It’s tracking toward one of the bigger superhero-movie losses in recent memory.
The data behind the miss
The demographic breakdown shows exactly where it went wrong, and these are just facts, not spin.
According to exit polling, the Supergirl audience was 59% male and 65% over the age of 25. For a movie built around a young female superhero, that’s a flashing red light: the target audience, younger women, largely didn’t turn out. The film didn’t break beyond the existing core superhero crowd.
It also landed a “B-” CinemaScore (down from the straight “B” early estimates) and a 56% on Rotten Tomatoes, mixed-to-soft on both the critic and audience sides. That combination, weak reviews plus a core-only audience, is a recipe for a fast fade rather than a long, leggy run.
What DC is saying
The studio’s response remains measured, and unchanged.
DC Studios co-CEO Peter Safran addressed the miss directly: “While Supergirl didn’t meet our box office expectations, it’s just one component of a broader, long-term strategy at DC Studios that we remain confident in.” It’s a stay-the-course message, pointing to the slate ahead (Clayface in October, James Gunn’s Man of Tomorrow in 2027) rather than this single result.
And there’s a real business backdrop: the DC slate reportedly has the backing of David Ellison, whose Paramount Skydance is in the process of acquiring Warner Bros. Discovery. So the people who’ll soon own the studio are, for now, still behind the plan.
The bottom line
The number is the number, and it kept getting smaller all weekend: $55M hoped, $37.1M delivered, below even Sunday’s estimate. Against a $170 million budget, with an $85 million projected loss and a target audience that didn’t show, Supergirl is a confirmed, sizable flop, by the only scoreboard that counts, the box office.
What that means for the wider DC Universe is a separate, open question. Superman worked. The slate continues. One movie doesn’t end a multi-year plan, and Safran’s “long game” framing isn’t wrong on its face. But the Supergirl result itself isn’t ambiguous.
The projections fell all weekend, and the final number fell right through the floor with them. Sometimes the scoreboard tells a complicated story. This weekend, it told a very simple one.
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Article compiled and edited by Derek Gibbs (entertainment editor) and the Clownfish TV newsroom.
Hat Tips:
Variety (June 2026), verified for the $37.1 million final domestic figure coming in below the $38 million Sunday estimate, the $67-68 million global total, the $55M-to-$50M pre-weekend tracking slide, the 56% Rotten Tomatoes / B- CinemaScore, and the 59%-male audience demo
TheWrap (June 2026), verified for the ~$85 million projected loss, the 65%-over-25 demographic miss, the $300 million break-even figure, the Morbius ($39M/$167M) comparison, and the unlikely-to-pass-The-Flash ($271M) projection
The Hollywood Reporter and Deadline (June 2026), verified for Peter Safran’s “didn’t meet our box office expectations” statement, the second-place finish behind Toy Story 5, the Clayface/Man of Tomorrow slate, and the David Ellison/Paramount Skydance backing
Empire (June 2026), verified for the global opening context, the Superman ($217M global open / $618M total) comparison, and the break-even math