Supergirl is about to lose its opening weekend to a week-old Toy Story 5
The reviews came in Rotten, the tracking is soft, and a Pixar movie that’s already been out a week is set to nearly double Supergirl’s debut. Here’s where Kara’s opening number actually lands among superhero movies.
Supergirl flies into theaters Friday, and it’s walking into a buzzsaw. A week-old cartoon is going to beat it.
That’s not a knock on the movie’s quality, exactly. It’s just math. Toy Story 5 opened huge last weekend, Pixar movies hold strong, and Supergirl is opening soft into the worst possible slot on the calendar.
The matchup isn’t close
Here’s the problem in plain numbers.
Supergirl is tracking for a domestic opening of about $47-50 million, per Variety and Deadline, from 3,600 theaters. Respectable on its own. The trouble is what it’s opening against.
Toy Story 5 opened to a massive $160 million last weekend, the biggest debut of the year. Pixar movies don’t crash in week two, and Deadline has Toy Story 5’s second weekend landing around $88-96 million, only a 40-45% drop.
Line those up and it’s not a contest. A four-week-in-the-making Pixar sequel on its second weekend is set to nearly double a brand-new superhero movie’s opening. Supergirl is going to debut in second place, beaten by a movie that’s already been in theaters a week.
The reviews didn’t ride to the rescue
A soft opening can be saved by great reviews that build word of mouth. Supergirl didn’t get them.
When the embargo lifted, the movie landed at 56% on Rotten Tomatoes, official Rotten status. Critics love Milly Alcock and Jason Momoa’s Lobo, but they knocked a bland villain, murky visuals, and a thin, scattered story. Variety was brutal, calling it “super-horrendous.”
Reviews that mixed don’t create the must-see buzz that pulls in casual moviegoers. So the one thing that could’ve boosted the opening past its tracking didn’t show up.
Where Supergirl lands among superhero openings
Here’s the context that tells you how rough a sub-$50 million start really is.
A $47-50 million opening would put Supergirl in the company of superhero movies nobody wants to be grouped with. For comparison:
Superman (2025) — $125 million opening
The Flash (2023) — $55 million
The Marvels (2023) — $46.1 million, the lowest opening in Marvel history
Shazam: Fury of the Gods (2023) — $30.1 million
Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom (2023) — $27.4 million
So Supergirl lands right around The Flash and just above The Marvels, two movies that became bywords for superhero box-office failure. It’s a fraction of what Superman pulled last summer. That’s the neighborhood Kara’s opening in, and it’s not a nice one.
It’s not all doom, though
Two things keep this from being a death sentence, and they’re worth saying.
First, the break-even is low. Supergirl cost about $175 million, and Deadline reports it only needs around $315 million worldwide to break even, not the brutal $435 million the usual formula would demand. A soft opening doesn’t automatically mean a money-loser.
Second, the multiplier matters more than the opening. A superhero movie that opens at $50 million and “legs out” on decent word of mouth can still post a fine total. Aquaman once turned its opening into nearly five times that by the end of its run. The question is whether Supergirl plays more like that, or burns out fast.
What to actually watch
So forget opening-weekend bragging rights for a second.
Supergirl losing to Toy Story 5 was baked in the moment the schedule came out. A Pixar juggernaut on weekend two was always going to win. The real number to watch isn’t whether Kara beats the toys, because she won’t. It’s how she holds up after opening weekend, once Minions and Monsters crashes in July 1 and the competition gets even worse.
If Supergirl opens around $48 million and holds well, it survives and turns a profit on the back end. If it drops like a rock, the doom talk gets real. Friday gives the first number. The weeks after are where Supergirl’s fate actually gets decided, long after Toy Story 5 has taken the crown for the weekend.
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Article compiled and edited by Derek Gibbs (entertainment editor) and the Clownfish TV newsroom.
Hat Tips:
Variety and Deadline (June 24, 2026), verified for the $47-50 million Supergirl opening projection, the 3,600 theater count, the Toy Story 5 second-weekend estimate of $88-96 million at a 40-45% drop, and the superhero-opening comparisons
Rotten Tomatoes (June 24, 2026), verified for the 56% Rotten score and the critic consensus on the villain, visuals, and story
Deadline and Box Office Theory (June 2026), verified for the $175 million budget, the $315 million break-even, and the comparison figures for The Flash, The Marvels, Shazam, and Aquaman openings
Box Office Pro (June 2026), verified for the Minions and Monsters July 1 opening adding further competition and the multiplier/legs analysis