Supergirl is tracking to lose its opening weekend to Toy Story 5
Box Office Pro pegs Supergirl at a $45 to $55 million opening on June 26, the same weekend Toy Story 5’s second lap is tracking to top that on its own. These are projections, but the calendar math is rough on Kara.
Supergirl opens June 26, and the box-office trackers think it might not finish first that weekend. Not because of another new release, but because of a Pixar movie that’ll already have been out for a week.
What Supergirl is actually tracking for
The headline number keeps shrinking.
Box Office Pro‘s latest long-range forecast has Supergirl opening at $45 million to $55 million domestically. That’s down from the $55 million-plus Deadline had on early three-week tracking, and it lines up with Box Office Theory landing around $51 million.
For a sense of scale, that range sits below the openings of Aquaman and Black Adam, both around $67 million, and roughly even with 2023’s The Flash at $55 million. The low end would actually open under The Marvels, the $46 million debut that became Marvel’s shorthand for franchise fatigue.
It also follows Superman, which opened to $125 million last summer on its way to $354 million domestic. Milly Alcock’s Kara is projected to launch at well under half of what David Corenswet’s Clark managed a year earlier.
Why Toy Story 5 owns the June 26 weekend
The bigger problem isn’t the number. It’s the calendar.
Pixar’s Toy Story 5 opens June 19, one week ahead of Supergirl, and it’s tracking enormous. Box Office Pro has it between $165 million and $185 million, while Deadline takes the more cautious “north of $150 million.” Either way, its second weekend lands square on June 26 to 28, the exact frame Supergirl is trying to debut in.
Run the math and it’s ugly for DC. Toy Story 4 fell only about 50% in its second weekend. Apply that to a $160 million start and Toy Story 5 still pulls around $80 million the weekend Supergirl opens. Push the drop to a brutal 65% and it’s still near $56 million, enough to edge most of Supergirl‘s projected opening.
Toy Story has legs, and that’s the problem
This is where the matchup really tilts.
You’d need Toy Story 5 to crater for Supergirl to back into the top spot, and Toy Story movies do not crater. The franchise has pulled close to $2.9 billion worldwide across four films, with sequels spaced out far enough that each one hands the toys down to a new generation of kids.
The early word isn’t helping Kara’s odds either. Toy Story 5 drew strong first reactions out of its premiere, and Taylor Swift cut an original song for it that’s already racked up millions of views. Good buzz means a smaller second-weekend drop, which is exactly the wrong direction for anything opening against it.
A #2 debut is an optics problem, not a death sentence
Worth keeping some perspective here.
A $50 million opening for Supergirl isn’t a bomb, and losing a weekend to a Pixar juggernaut is the kind of thing Warner Bros. can explain away in a press release. The number that actually decides this movie’s fate is the multiplier, how it holds up after week one. Aquaman legged out to nearly 5x its opening. Black Adam managed only about 2.5x and faded.
That’s the real worry, because Supergirl is walking into a buzzsaw of a calendar. Minions & Monsters arrives July 1 and the live-action Moana lands July 10, both gunning for the same family and four-quadrant crowds Supergirl would need to build any momentum.
So the second-place opening, if it happens, is just the embarrassing part. Whether Kara has any legs left after a week of sharing screens with Woody and Buzz is the number DC Studios should actually be sweating, and it’s the one nobody can call until the reviews land and the seats fill.
Article compiled and edited by Derek Gibbs (entertainment editor) and the Clownfish TV newsroom.
D/REZZED is part of Clownfish TV. For more news, views, and rants on gaming, tech, and pop culture, visit clownfishtv.com. Watch the show on YouTube at @ClownfishTV where new episodes drop daily. Subscribe to the Clownfish TV podcast on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, iHeart, and wherever else you get your podcasts. Sign up for the free newsletter at more.clownfishtv.com.
Hat Tips:
Box Office Pro (June 12, 2026), verified for the $45–$55 million Supergirl opening forecast and the $165–$185 million Toy Story 5 opening range
Deadline (June 2026), verified for Supergirl’s earlier $55 million-plus three-week tracking, Toy Story 5’s “north of $150 million” projection, and the warning that Toy Story 4’s tracking overshot
Box Office Theory (2026), verified for the ~$51 million Supergirl estimate and the analysis of Supergirl’s crowded summer calendar against Minions & Monsters and Moana
ComingSoon (June 2026), verified for the Supergirl comps to The Flash, Black Adam, and The Marvels, the multiplier comparisons, and the June 26 release details
Cosmic Book News (June 16, 2026), the originating piece, for the second-weekend drop scenarios and the head-to-head framing