Supergirl Tracking Between 'The Marvels'and 'Black Adam'
Is this film box office Kryptonite?
Warner Bros. / DC's ‘Supergirl’ is a month out from theatrical release, but the early estimates are not looking good.
Currently, the film is tracking for a domestic opening between $47 million and $65 million, which would put it between the box office bombs ‘The Marvels’ ($47 million opening) and ‘Black Adam’ ($67 million opening).
This is not great.
Last year’s ‘Superman’ did 2-3X when it opened at $125 million, and it brought in $624 million worldwide.
It only made about $125 million in profit.
‘Supergirl’ has an estimated budget of $165 - $170 million, with estimates putting it at a “break-even” amount of $400 - $425 million. Even if the film debuts on the high end at $65 million domestic, that is $100 million below the production costs.
‘Supergirl’ faces her biggest challenge yet, a crammed box office
This summer is packed full of big films. ‘Master of the Universe’ and ‘Scary Movie 6’ release on June 5. June 12 is ‘Disclosure Day’. June 19 is ‘Toy Story 5’. These all release ahead of ‘Supergirl’ while other big films like the live-action ‘Moana’ will release on July 10 and ‘The Odyssey’ on July 17th.
Finally, ‘Spider-Man: Brand New Day’ comes out on July 31.
‘Supergirl’ is facing off against a lot of big films that will definitely cut into the box office run.
Who is this film for?
Another issue ‘Supergirl’ faces is the demographic.
Traditionally, superhero films skew toward a male-centric audience. Even “The Marvels” had a larger male audience than a female audience.
‘Supergirl’ might have a challenge after Milly Alcock (Kara Zor-El) made some comments that seemingly painted men as problematic internet trolls, especially Christian dads for some reason.
This will likely cause some of the audience to pass on the film.
Families likely won’t come to this movie
Another big summer demographic, families, will likely pass on this film as well. Kara seems to have a drinking problem and a dog that could die from some form of poison. Not exactly the makings of a movie parents will want to take their kids to.
As an adult, I understand that this movie has Kara starting out in a dark place and finding her way, but that still might be something that is too dark for families.
All of this adds up to the big question: “How well will Supergirl perform?”
We don’t know yet, but it is not looking good with the box office estimates being this low. We may have yet another female-led superhero bomb at the box office, which is sad because there really is a lot of potential here.
What do you think? Comment and let us know!