Supergirl tracking to be a box office disaster, half of Superman opening
Tracking puts Supergirl at $47 to $65 million on a $170 million budget. The film survived 8 test screenings, 3 endings, and 3 composers. David Corenswet’s Superman keeps getting added in reshoots.
Supergirl: Woman of Tomorrow opens June 26, 2026, and it is on track to be a financial disaster.
The Warner Bros. release is currently tracking to open between $47 million and $65 million at the domestic box office, according to Box Office Theory projections cited by industry analysts. Total domestic run projections sit between $107 million and $181 million. Production budget is reported at around $170 million, with marketing costs pushing total expenses near $245 million. To break even worldwide, the film needs to earn roughly $425 million.
It is not going to.
For comparison, James Gunn‘s Superman opened to $125 million domestically in July 2025 and grossed $618 million worldwide on a $225 million budget. Supergirl is tracking to open at less than half of Superman’s debut, and the worst-case scenario would put it in the same range as The Marvels, which opened to $46 million in 2023 and grossed just $206 million worldwide. That film is widely considered the worst-performing Marvel movie of all time.
That is the floor. Supergirl is tracking toward it.
The test screenings tell the story
Warner Bros. has spent the better part of a year trying to fix this movie behind closed doors.
According to World of Reel editor-in-chief Jordan Ruimy, Supergirl has been test-screened “at least eight times“ over the past several months. Ruimy says that is more times than “any other studio film this decade” to his recollection.
Each test screening has come with changes.
Three different endings have been shown to test audiences. The composer was replaced twice, with Ramin Djawadi of Game of Thrones and Iron Man fame leaving the project. The film is now on its third composer, hired late in the process. Reshoots have been ongoing for months. According to insider MyTimeToShineH and confirmed by Cosmic Book News at WonderCon in March 2026, those reshoots have specifically focused on adding more David Corenswet‘s Superman to the film.
In the latest cut, Superman now FaceTimes Supergirl during the movie and shows up at the end. The original plan was a brief cameo only.
The audience response across the test screenings has been described by Ruimy as “not disastrous, but not glowing either.” Milly Alcock‘s performance has been consistently praised. The action scenes and the villain have been consistently flagged. The ending keeps getting reworked because Warner Bros. cannot find a version that lands.
For a tentpole opening in less than four weeks, the picture behind the scenes is the picture of a studio scrambling.
Milly Alcock’s press tour became the story
Then came the interviews.
In a Vanity Fair piece released alongside the Supergirl trailer in March 2026, Alcock spoke about anticipating backlash for being a woman in a high-profile franchise role.
“It definitely made me aware that simply existing as a woman in that space is something that people comment on,” Alcock said. “We have become very comfortable having this weird ownership of women’s bodies. I can’t really stop them. I can only be myself.”
Then came Variety. In a follow-up interview, Alcock admitted she had not watched Black Widow, Captain Marvel, or Wonder Woman before taking on the role. Asked how she would describe her version of Supergirl, she said “probably not great” and joked “I should just lie!”
The internet noticed.
By late May, the press tour had created exactly the kind of pre-release controversy that has sunk previous franchise tentpoles. The studio narrative was that the backlash was coming from right-wing male critics and “Christian dads” hostile to a female-led superhero film.
Then on May 30, 2026, Grace Randolph, the longtime host of YouTube’s Beyond the Trailer and one of the most-followed female box office analysts in the entertainment commentary space, weighed in. The studio narrative stopped working.
Randolph, who has spent more than a decade publicly supporting female-led superhero films, called the Variety interview “rough” and the comments “not good.” She compared the situation to Rachel Zegler‘s Snow White press tour, which damaged that film before it even opened.
“I couldn’t believe this,” Randolph said. “If I were a publicist, I’d be like, ‘Stop talking for the love of God.‘”
On Alcock not watching the previous female-led superhero films, Randolph was unsparing. “Really bad.“ She argued Alcock should have studied Gal Gadot, Scarlett Johansson, and Brie Larson before taking on the role. “Support your fellow ladies.“
When a sympathetic critic with a track record of supporting female-led superhero movies tells the star of the latest female-led superhero movie to stop talking, the press tour is no longer a press tour. It is part of the box office story.
David Ellison just bought the studio
The most important business context for any of this is that Warner Bros. Discovery is no longer going to be a standalone company by the time Man of Tomorrow, the planned Supergirl follow-up, hits theaters in 2027.
On February 27, 2026, Paramount Skydance announced it had reached a definitive merger agreement to acquire Warner Bros. Discovery for $31 per share in cash, valuing WBD at an enterprise value of $110 billion. The deal is expected to close in Q3 2026, after Supergirl opens but well before Man of Tomorrow.
The acquisition is backed by $47 billion in equity from the Ellison Family and RedBird Capital Partners. David Ellison, the current Paramount Skydance Chairman and CEO, will be running the combined company. Paramount is projecting over $6 billion in synergies from the merger, with major cost cuts already planned across the combined operation.
That means when Supergirl underperforms in June, the Ellison-led Paramount will inherit a struggling DCU as one of its first major creative assets in the new combined company.
This matters for what comes next. James Gunn‘s DCU plan was built around three pillars in 2026 and 2027: Supergirl, Clayface, and Lanterns. Man of Tomorrow, the Superman sequel, is scheduled for 2027. Frank Grillo has already wrapped filming as Lex Luthor for that film. Multiple TV series are also in development.
Almost all of those decisions were made under the previous Warner Bros. Discovery leadership. The new Ellison-led ownership is going to evaluate them through fresh eyes, fresh budgets, and fresh financial expectations.
A floppy Supergirl gives the Ellisons every reason to cut.
What happens if Supergirl and Man of Tomorrow both underperform
The financial math under the Paramount-Skydance ownership will be brutal if the DCU does not deliver.
The Ellisons paid a premium for Warner Bros. Discovery in a contested takeover that involved publicly outbidding Netflix. They are inheriting massive debt. They have promised Wall Street more than $6 billion in cost savings. The DCU has been an expensive bet that took years to recover from the failures of the previous DCEU era. A weak Supergirl plus a soft Man of Tomorrow gives the new ownership a very clean justification to slow the slate, cancel projects, and prioritize lower-cost franchises that have higher margins.
The Gunn-Safran DCU model was built on the assumption that the parent company would absorb early losses as the cinematic universe established itself. The new parent company has not signaled the same patience. Paramount Skydance bought Warner Bros. Discovery to extract synergies and grow the streaming business. Subsidizing a struggling cinematic universe is not the obvious play.
For Gunn personally, this is a real risk. He was hired by Warner Bros. Discovery CEO David Zaslav with a long runway. The Ellison-led combined company will not have made that promise. Gunn’s standing inside the company depends almost entirely on whether the DCU delivers ticket sales. If it does not, the next conversation between the new ownership and Gunn is going to be very different from the one Zaslav originally had.
Supergirl is the test case
Everything is about to be measured against this one movie.
If Supergirl opens in the $60s and holds well, the DCU survives. The Ellisons will let the slate continue, Man of Tomorrow will get its release, and the broader plan stays intact.
If Supergirl opens in the $40s and collapses, the DCU is in serious trouble. Test screenings have already raised internal doubts. The reshoots have already added complications. The Alcock press tour has already eroded fan enthusiasm. A weak opening would confirm every concern Warner Bros. has been quietly trying to manage for the past year, and it would do so right as the Ellisons are taking over the company.
The competitive picture does not help. Supergirl opens one week after Toy Story 5, which is tracking $130 to $160 million for its opening and will still be in its second weekend. Minions & Monsters opens five days after Supergirl. The live-action Moana remake opens two weeks later. Casual moviegoers have multiple bigger options.
For a film already battling reshoot rumors, a difficult press tour, and weak presales, the calendar is not doing it any favors.
What this all means
The Supergirl story has stopped being about Supergirl.
It is now about whether James Gunn’s DCU can survive its first major test without the founder Zaslav-Gunn relationship that originally built it. It is about whether Milly Alcock can recover from a press tour that became a story before her movie opened. It is about whether Warner Bros. can find a version of this film that test audiences actually like before June 26. It is about whether the Paramount-Skydance takeover, when it closes in Q3, will treat the DCU as a growth asset or a cost center.
By the end of June, most of those questions will start to have answers.
The Ellisons are about to take over one of the most expensive studios in Hollywood. Their first major DCU release under the new ownership is going to be a film that needed eight test screenings, three endings, three composers, and a series of Superman reshoots just to get to opening weekend. The star is one bad interview away from becoming a meme. The box office tracking is bad. The competitive calendar is worse.
If Supergirl somehow defies all of this and opens strong, it will be one of the bigger surprises of the year. If it does not, the next chapter of the DCU is going to be written by people who never wanted to be in the superhero business in the first place.
For Warner Bros. Discovery shareholders, the answer probably arrives at the Q3 closing. For DCU fans, the answer arrives over the next three weeks. For Milly Alcock, the answer probably came the day Grace Randolph hit record on her response video.
The receipts are coming. June 26 is when we start counting.
Article compiled and edited by Derek Gibbs (entertainment editor) and the Clownfish TV newsroom.
D/REZZED is part of Clownfish TV. For more news, views, and rants on gaming, tech, and pop culture, visit clownfishtv.com. Watch the show on YouTube at @ClownfishTV where new episodes drop daily. Subscribe to the Clownfish TV podcast on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, iHeart, and wherever else you get your podcasts. Sign up for the free newsletter at more.clownfishtv.com.
Hat Tips:
Washington Times (May 26, 2026), Supergirl tracking analysis confirming $47 to $65 million Box Office Theory projection range and the comparison to Black Adam, The Marvels, and Superman openings
Box Office Theory via Cosmic Book News (May 28, 2026), verified $47 million to $65 million opening range and $107 million to $181 million total domestic run projection
Yahoo Entertainment / ComicBook.com (May 22-29, 2026), break-even analysis confirming $245 million combined production-plus-marketing cost and ~$425 million worldwide break-even target
Fox News Outkick (May 29, 2026), additional tracking analysis and Milly Alcock press tour context
Dark Horizons (May 28, 2026), Supergirl tracking analysis and competitive calendar context
World of Reel, Jordan Ruimy’s verified reporting on eight test screenings, three endings, and three composers including the Ramin Djawadi original engagement
Cosmic Book News and ComicBookMovie (March 28-30, 2026), test screening reshoot reporting including the verified additional Superman scenes and the @MyTimeToShineH insider sourcing
SuperHeroHype (March 30, 2026), additional test screening coverage and the verified new ending cameo context
Bounding Into Comics (April 15, 2026), comprehensive Supergirl test screening analysis including the third composer change
Heroic Hollywood (March 30, 2026), Cryptic4KQual sourcing on the third tested ending
Variety (May 2026), Milly Alcock’s verified “probably not great / I should just lie!” quote and the admission about not watching previous female-led superhero films
Vanity Fair (March 2026), Milly Alcock’s verified “simply existing as a woman in that space” and “weird ownership of women’s bodies” quotes
Grace Randolph / Beyond the Trailer (May 30, 2026), verified “Stop talking for the love of God,” “really bad,” and “support your fellow ladies” quotes on the Alcock press tour
Reddit r/KotakuInAction (May 26, 2026), aggregated discussion of the Box Office Theory tracking data
SEC Form 8-K and DFAN14A filings (February 27, 2026), Paramount Skydance acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery for $31 per share, $110 billion enterprise value, $47 billion Ellison Family / RedBird Capital equity backing, and Q3 2026 expected closing date
CNBC (February 27, 2026), David Ellison verified interview with Julia Boorstin including the 63 percent premium acknowledgment
Paramount Skydance corporate communications (February 26, 2026), $6 billion synergies projection
AOL / Fox News (March 31, 2026), Alcock’s verified “Of course I’m scared” Vanity Fair quotes and the “bullied myself into auditioning” context
Wikipedia, Supergirl: Woman of Tomorrow and Man of Tomorrow cast and production details including Frank Grillo confirmation as Lex Luthor